The Risks of Space Debris: What the Vacuum of Space Shouldn’t Pick Up

Gabriel Flouret

The modern world revolves around people’s often overlooked dependence on satellites. Healthcare information, credit card purchase authorizations, imagery systems, and more count on satellites for their day-to-day functions. For those who live in developed nations, security is hyper-reliant on satellites and space has become an increasingly accessible free-for-all theater. The information distributed to ground, air, and maritime troops complements their efforts and presents space-invested nations with a powerful advantage. Though in the vacuum of space, satellites are not untouchable or immune to threats. Human-made space debris and enemies’ counterspace weapons represent a significant danger to the over 6,000 satellites in orbit. Civilian and military dependence upon the nearly 3,000 operational satellites subsequently makes them attractive targets. Potential enemies can strike satellites with electronic, cyber, non-kinetic physical, and kinetic physical weapons. Non-kinetic physical attacks are strikes without direct contact and kinetic physical attacks attempt to damage or destroy assets. Each option would lead to various consequences in space and global responses.

Generally, the usage of electronic and cyber weapons against satellites is more discreet. The attack targets the onboard operating system through jamming, data manipulation, or complete seizure of control. Each can be strategically used for a specific purpose. A significant feature of counterspace electronic and cyber weapons, unless a perpetrator enacts a seizure of control and intentionally leaves the satellite in an uncontrollable state, there is no physical collateral.

Collateral damage should be a primary consideration in the prospective usage of physical counterspace weapons. On the one hand, non-kinetic physical attacks, except for laser dazzling which is reversible and only blinds the system’s sensors, disables satellites which render them uncontrollable. Systems intended to mitigate and avoid potential damage exist to protect humans and space. On the other hand, kinetic physical strikes, when successful, leave space debris. According to NASA, “More than 23,000 orbital debris larger than 10 cm are known to exist. The estimated population of particles between 1 and 10 cm in diameter is approximately 500,000. The number of particles larger than 1 mm exceeds 100 million.” Space debris poses a great threat to satellites, astronauts, scientific exploration, and security as it cannot all be tracked and travels unpredictably. In 2016, a seven-millimeter fleck of paint, traveling at over 25,000 kilometers per hour, hit the International Space Station and chipped a window. Data indicates that space debris increasingly collides with objects in orbit which, in turn, creates additional debris.

There is no international treaty on orbital debris, but Russia, China, Japan, France, the European Space Agency, and the United States have recognized guidelines. Private companies and agencies have invested and taken measures to better develop vehicle design and operations. Four nations, the United States, Russia, China, and India, have conducted kinetic physical Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapons tests—immense producers of space debris. India, the last and most recent testers of ASAT weapons, in 2019 destroyed one of their Microsat-R satellites in orbit. Proof of functional ASAT weapons capabilities, as announced by Prime Minister Modi on national television, sends a message to international actors—Beijing in particular. In 2007, the Chinese conducted an ASAT test to show their capabilities to the Indians that produced over double the space debris.

Continued testing and usage of counterspace weaponry, kinetic physical, non-kinetic physical, electronic, and cyber have the potential to trigger a space-based tragedy of the commons. Debris accumulates each year and will progressively continue to threaten space travel and operations. The United Nations, Russia, China, the European Union, and the United States have shown efforts to mitigate debris that come from operations and curtail the possibility of counterspace weapons usage. Even in the realm of commercial space endeavors, space debris is produced. In March, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket had debris which orbited the Earth for 22 days before re-entering the atmosphere in the Pacific Northwest—an all too familiar sight for  Californians, Floridians, and Texans. In April, mid-flight on NASA’s Crew-2 Mission to the International Space Station, the four astronauts on board had to take precautions to potentially avoid incoming debris which fortunately missed the craft.

Nations with space capabilities, space potential, and a heavy reliance upon satellites, which amounts to all nations, look unfavorably upon operations that create immense amounts of space debris. Space debris poses a massive risk to current missions, future missions, and livelihoods on Earth. Governments should attempt to find diplomatic means to dissuade international actors from conducting kinetic weapons tests and investments must be made to further the work of projects like Astroscale’s Elsa-d, Northrup Grumman’s MEV-2, and Altius’ Bulldog that help rid space of man-made debris.