Coronavirus in North Korea: Does the country really have no cases?
Olivia Groom
North Korea has never reported any confirmed cases of Covid-19. Whilst restrictions in most of the world have not, for the most part prevented the spread of pandemic, it seems North Korea’s extreme and rapid response to the threat, along with its isolationism, has helped prevent the cases, hospitalisations, and deaths experienced by the majority of countries.
From January 23rd, 2020, almost two months before Boris Johnson announced lockdown in England, the North Korean government banned foreign tourists and halted all flights in and out of the country. At the time, there had only been approximately 400 Covid-19 cases and just 9 deaths from the virus worldwide. This certainly puts forth another question: What did North Korea know that the West did not?
North Korea is more vulnerable in the event of an outbreak than other countries. It is economically and diplomatically isolated, with a weak healthcare system and a life expectancy of only 71 years, as of 2016. This explains the quick and strict reaction to Covid-19, but was it enough to protect the state from the pandemic?
Since it first closed its borders, North Korea has continued its strict Covid-19 measures. For example, when an outbreak occurred in China, North Korea tracked down all Chinese visitors in the town of Rason and quarantined them on an island for a month. However, this approach has apparently had extraordinarily effective results. The most recent report from WHO’s South-East Asia offices reported that North Korea Covid-19 testing shows that they are experiencing no cases. 22,389 North Koreans have had a PCR test, and 726 people (out of a population of 25 million) were tested during the latest measured period of March 19th to March 25th, 2021. All tests have had negative results.
Yet, North Korea’s Covid-19 approach is not as flawless as the government advertises. The South Korean outlet, Daily NK source inside North Korea’s military cited a report that stated 180 soldiers had died in January and February 2020, with a further 3,700 soldiers under quarantine. In addition, Daily NK stated that five suspected Covid-19 patients in Sinuiju on the Chinese border died on February 7th, 2020. An article in The Korea Times also reported that a female North Korean, in the capital Pyongyang, was infected. Whilst maintaining that there were still no cases, the government installed further Covid-19 measures in February, with closing schools from the 20th, cancelling events, closing public places such as restaurants, and making masks obligatory. Officials almost admitted a case in July, when state newspaper Rodon Sinmu reported in July that a ‘state of emergency’ had been declared in Kaeson City; a defector who had returned to the country from South Korea was suspected to have Covid-19. A lockdown of the City followed.
The most recent signs of the virus in North Korea come from the vaccination activity in the state. The country received two million doses of the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine in February 2021. North Korea also attempted to steal Covid-19 vaccine technology by hacking into Pfizer, according to South Korea's National Intelligence Agency. In November, Microsoft stated that at least nine health organisations, including Pfizer, had been targeted by state-back organisations in North Korea and Russia. Such desperate measures clearly made to combat the virus seem odd for a state that maintains it has never experienced a single Covid-19 case.
In reality, it is impossible to tell the scale of the spread of the pandemic in North Korea; all official messaging is controlled by Kim Jong-un’s regime and international diplomats and humanitarian groups have unsurprisingly largely left the country, with the last remaining members of the International Committee of the Red Cross having left the state on December 2nd, 2020. On December 9th, Kim Jon-un’s sister heavily criticised South Korea’s foreign minister Kang Kyung-wha for questioning the North’s claim to be Covid-19 free. She also warned that the minister “might have to pay dearly” for her remarks. This is despite North Korea’s state media having repeatedly said there is a “maximum emergency” anti-epidemic campaign.
Meanwhile, there is a huge cost to North Korea’s measures. North Korea’s GDP was estimated to have contracted by 9.3% in 2020. Trade with its closest ally China fell 80% in the first 11 months of 2020 compared with the same period in 2019, according to Song Jaeguk, an analyst at the IBK Economic Research Institute in Seoul. Moreover, official statistics from China and South Korea suggest North Korea is experiencing its worst recession since the devastating famine of the mid-1990s. According to Tomas Ojea-Quintana, the United Nations' Special Rapporteur for Human Rights in North Korea, the strict restrictions have led to widespread food insecurity. The Daily NK has reported that lockdowns have prevented many people from leaving their homes and getting food. Those who do leave usually get arrested.
The evidence certainly posits that the virus has been spreading through North Korea. Such extreme and costly restrictions would seem unlikely in a place where the virus is not rampant, let alone non-existent. News reports—or leaks—suggest areas where outbreaks occurred. The attempts to hack into vaccine companies reflects the state’s potential desperation. North Korea endeavours to praise its own isolationist policies for preventing the spread of the pandemic. In reality, it has closed itself from potential foreign aid that is being offered to other vulnerable countries, such as COVAX. The EIU has predicted that vaccines will only be widely available to North Koreans from 2022 to 2023, making it one of the last countries to initiate a widespread vaccination programme for its citizens.