Ordered Assassinations & Growing Unrest: Is There a Breaking Point for Maduro?

The gruesome assassination of former Venezuelan military officer Ronald Ojeda – a dissident found stuffed inside a suitcase, which was encased in five feet of concrete – has reignited urgent questions around the authoritarian rule of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro (Dubé, 2025). This is not an isolated event; it is emblematic of a regime that thrives on oppression and criminal alliances to maintain its grip on power. As Venezuela plunges further into authoritarianism, the world must ask: Is this moment a catalyst for Maduro’s stronghold finally starting to unravel? 

Maduro has long ruled through intimidation, but Ojeda’s assassination, which was allegedly orchestrated in collaboration with the notorious criminal gang Tren de Aragua, signals a notable escalation (Sanhueza, 2025).  

The Venezuelan government stands accused of carrying out a political killing on foreign soil, a move that mirrors tactics used by the world's most oppressive regimes. If Maduro is willing to violate Chile’s sovereignty to silence opponents, it signals his willingness to defy international law in pursuit of suppressing dissent. 

The timing is critical. Maduro was recently sworn into his third term of presidency despite overwhelming evidence of election fraud (Vyas, 2024). The opposition, along with much of the international community, such as the United States, has refused to recognize his presidency (BBC, 2019). The brazenness of Ojeda’s murder, coupled with the regime’s growing reliance on organized crime, suggests that Maduro’s government is not just corrupt, but turning increasingly desperate. His ties to criminal organizations extend beyond domestic repression: Maduro and senior officials have been accused of “narco-terrorism,” by the United States, as they have been accused of working with a faction of the Colombian rebel group the FARC to flood the U.S. with cocaine (BBC, 2020).  

While Maduro has survived previous waves of unrest, including the failed ‘Operation Freedom’ coup d’état, the combination of rising pressures of economic collapse, mass emigration, and rising dissent from within his own ranks may finally push his regime to the brink. The Venezuelan people, worn down by hyperinflation, food shortages, and lack of basic freedoms, have little left to lose (Marsteintredet, 2020). Each act of repression fuels further resentment, making it harder for Maduro to control the narrative without resorting to extreme aggression or threats. 

Internationally, patience is also wearing thin. The United States’ recent seizure of a Venezuelan government aircraft due to money laundering allegations is one of many signals that global powers are preparing to act more aggressively (U.S. Department of Justice, 2025). Meanwhile, Chilean authorities are actively investigating Ojeda’s assassination, with growing evidence linking the Venezuelan government to the crime (Dubé, 2025). If foreign governments unite in their response – whether through extreme sanctions, diplomatic isolation, or other drastic measures – Maduro may find himself without the external lifelines that have so far kept him afloat, such as the oil investments and aid from Russia and China (Cara Labrador, 2019). 

Despite international pressure and the regime's increasing authoritarianism, there are some signals that the new Trump Administration might overlook the Maduro regime’s many abuses in return for cooperation on Venezuelan deportees. U.S. special envoy Richard Grenell visited Caracas last month and met with Maduro, who then agreed to accept return flights of Venezuelan migrants and asylum-seekers (Plummer, 2025). Additionally, by negotiating with Maduro, the Trump administration can claim a diplomatic win on immigration while avoiding direct intervention in Venezuela’s political crisis, which aligns with its “America First” approach to foreign policy. Some observers see this as a step towards a normalization of relations between the two countries. 

Ultimately, Maduro’s choices are narrowing to a single choice: escalate repression to maintain control or face a possible collapse of his regime. Alberts, Warshaw, and Weingast (2012) argue that negotiated transitions with power-sharing agreements stabilize democracy. However, Venezuela's failed ‘Operation Freedom’ showed Maduro’s unwillingness to cede power, making such a transition unlikely despite worsening conditions. With diplomatic solutions increasingly unfeasible and repression escalating, the regime's fate now hinges on whether internal fractures or external pressure will be the final breaking point. So, the question is not if Maduro’s rule will collapse, but when - and at what cost. Is Ojeda’s assassination a step too far? The world is watching. 

Sources

Álvarez, José. "De un secuestro inusual a un crimen político por encargo de Venezuela: la tesis de la Fiscalía chilena por el asesinato de Ronald Ojeda." El País, January 26, 2025. https://elpais.com/chile/2025-01-26/de-un-secuestro-inusual-a-un-crimen-politico-por-encargo-de-venezuela-la-tesis-de-la-fiscalia-chilena-por-el-asesinato-de-ronald-ojeda.html

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Plummer, Robert. “Trump Says Venezuela Will Accept Migrants Returned from US.” BBC News, February 16, 2025. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjw4yejwlpeo

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Marsteintredet, Leiv. “With the Cards Stacked against You: Challenges to a Negotiated Transition to Democracy in Venezuela.” European Review of Latin American and Caribbean Studies / Revista Europea de Estudios Latinoamericanos y Del Caribe, no. 109 (2020): 87–106. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26936904

Stevens, Joseph. “Venezuela’s Maduro Denounces Chilean Murder Plot.” The New York Times, February 10, 2025. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/10/world/americas/venezuela-maduro-murder-chile.html

Third Way. “Country Brief: Venezuela.” Third Way, 2019. http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep20131

U.S. Department of Justice. "United States Seizes Venezuelan Aircraft Involved in Violations of U.S. Export Control and Sanctions." Office of Public Affairs, April 12, 2024. https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/united-states-seizes-venezuelan-aircraft-involved-violations-us-export-control-and-sanctions

"Venezuela Crisis: How the Political Situation Escalated." BBC News, March 27, 2020. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-52053799 

Vyas, Kejal. "Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro Moves to Cement Power Ahead of Election." The Wall Street Journal, December 12, 2023. https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/venezuela-nicolas-maduro-election-vote-d9f99a1a

Image Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Trade, and Integration, Government of Venezuela. https://thedialogue.org/analysis/will-maduro-finish-his-new-six-year-term-in-venezuela/