On Thin Ice: Arctic Trading Routes

Gabriel Flouret

Maritime pathways have long played a central role in the global economy and power—a notion which dates back to the age of exploration when royals commissioned renowned explorers such as Vasco de Gama and Christopher Columbus to discover more efficient trading routes. While cartographers like Gerardus Mercator and James Cook mapped much of the world for European exploration powerhouses, it is Robert Peary’s territory that is under scrutiny. As a result of climate change, new Arctic trading routes have emerged due to continuous polar ice-melt in recent decades. Reports indicate that the Arctic may be ice-free by as soon as 2040. Trends suggest that members of the Arctic Council and Arctic Stakeholders do not intend to wait for the solemn benchmark before taking full advantage of the new Arctic waters. The expansion of new Arctic passages have the potential to further impact geopolitics for members of the Arctic Council and its effects ripple beyond the borders of the Arctic Stakeholders.

The Northern Sea Route (NSR), which connects Western Europe to Eastern Asia, is the route that scientists believe will be the first free of ice. According to the World Trade Institute, over 90 percent of trade travels by sea. At the moment, roughly 100 commercial ships a year pass through the NSR compared to the 20,000 which pass through the Suez Canal. Journeys along the NSR would be 8,000 kilometers less and approximately twelve days faster than the traditional route. Travel time has the potential to decrease by up to 40 percent. The Suez Canal will potentially lose 8-10 percent of the trade that passes through it. Major shipping hubs such as Egypt, Singapore, Panama, and the American West Coast stand to lose the most. For example, instead of going through the Suez Canal and Panama, commercial ships will sail over Northern Russia and Canada, respectively. The Soviet Union was the last agent to actively use the NSR in the 1990s until Germany and Russia launched a successful joint commercial voyage in 2009. However, Germany and Russia are not the only two nations to conduct trial voyages. According to Malte Humpert of the Arctic Institute, the Chinese shipping company COSCO, within the next five years, will increase the number of trips to Europe through the NSR to between 200 and 300 annually—up from the current thirteen. 

In the near future, routes like the NSR may be limited to some as nations such as Canada and Russia are attempting to claim northern routes as their own; thus, elevating tensions. The reasoning behind the claim over the routes is that the nations want to retain sovereignty of what they claim are their waters. As a result, the United States may find itself in a position in which it will have limited influence in the Arctic theater. Nevertheless, the United States has refused to ratify the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea because they believe that they can protect their geopolitical interests and that the agreement would be detrimental.

Passages opening in the Arctic continue the human tradition of opportunism and exploitation of the environment. The chance to turn a profit in an area yet to be fully discovered is motivation enough to attract agents to the region. Despite the somber circumstances which will eventually allow for the Arctic to be fully explored, there is potential for immense economic profit which will likely cause a rift in geopolitics and the international economy.