An Update on Syria

Nicholas Podell

For nine years and seven months Syria has been embroiled in a catastrophic civil war. The conflict has caused more than half a million deaths and displaced an estimated 12.7 million people since the fighting began in 2011. The politics of the conflict have stabilized in recent years as the Government of Bashar al Assad has steadily reclaimed Syrian territory from sepratist rebels and Islamist groups such as the Ismaic State and the Al Nusra front. The Syrian Civil War is, however, not merely a national conflict but an international proxy war with global powers vying for regional hegemony in increasingly direct and militarized engagements. As the war draws to a close these conflicts are coming to a head in Idlib, the last Rebel held province in North Western Syria. The key powers in this conflict are the Syrian government, backed by Russia and Iran, and Turkey which is enmeshed in a complicated alliance with NATO and the remaining anti-government opposition within Syria. Turkey has established a significant military presence in Northern Syria in an attempt to exercise influence in the region and establish a bulwark against the possibility of an independent Kurdish state emerging on its southern border. Russia and Syria seek to advance on Idlib and crush what is left of the opposition to a unified Syrian state. With the United States having withdrawn from Northern Syria last October the resolution of the conflict will be decided by Russia and Turkey over control of Northern Syria and Idlib. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has threatened to block the Syrian advance militarily, which would likely draw Russia into a war with Turkey and possibly spiral into an open war between Russia and NATO. Negotiations have largely stalled, with Russia and Syria refusing to cede territory to Turkey and Turkey refusing to give up the foothold it has established in Northern Syria against the Kurds. 

 As it stands now, Turkey’s position is considerably weaker than Russia’s. While Turkey controls significant territory in Northern Syria, the absence of an American military presence to block the Syrian advance has greatly diminished its leverage. The United States was an essential ally of the Syrian opposition which was supplied with more than 1 billion dollars worth of military aid and training under operation Timber Sycamore from 2012 to 2017. With the United States effectively divested from Syria, and the remnants of the opposition concentrated in Idlib, the mediation of the conflict will depend on the willingness of Turkey and Russia to settle for peace: a highly unlikely outcome given their current positions. With three million lives in Idlib trapped between a Russian advance and an entrenched Turkish occupation, the situation in Syria remains delicate and potentially explosive. Turkey and Russia have proven unwilling to engage with each other diplomatically and the absence of a credible international mediator ensures that the fate of Syria will be decided by three autocratic states with well earned reputations for callous disregard for international law and human life. The international powers which sustained the Syrian civil war as a proxy conflict are rapidly coming to open confrontation: whether peace will be settled and on what terms remains unclear as the war collapses into an open power struggle between Russia and Turkey over the future of Syria.