Shifting Power in the Middle East: Iran-China Alliance

Audrey Sims

This past month, China announced a twenty-five-year $400 billion deal with Iran in exchange for a steady supply of oil which marks a new period of China’s involvement in the Middle East. China’s investment will be used to reinforce Iranian infrastructure and rebuild an economy that has been devastated by decades of sanctions from the United States. If approved by the Iranian parliament, the deal would also lead to major military cooperation between the two countries starting with military exercises taking place in the Persian Gulf. Iran is a goldmine of natural resources with its oil, gold, silk, and caviar so it presents a lucrative opportunity for China as well as being beneficial for Iran. 

China’s announcement of the deal has made the favor of Iran a hot topic in global politics. President Biden recently announced his desire to repair relations with Iran and allow for the reassembly of the nuclear program Donald Trump ended during his presidency. News of the United States ending their sanctions on Iran has started to circulate, which begs the question: Is the United States attempting to compete with China’s deal? China’s deal has certainly threatened the United State’s power over Iran. The United States sanctions on Iran were effective as long as Iran had nowhere else to sell their oil. Most countries won’t buy from sanctioned countries but China does not have the same reservations. With the promise of China buying a Iranian oil, the sanctions no longer diminish the oil’s value.

Additionally, the signing of this deal could have great impact on the power dynamics in the Middle East as well as mark an important moment in the U.S.-China great power competition. If Iran becomes backed by China, then the answer of who controls the Middle East will be up in the air as a Chinese-backed Iran is a much bigger threat to Israel and Saudi Arabia than an American backed Iran. Within Iran, this new deal with China displays a shift of thought for Iranians who have for decades viewed the United States as the ultimate global superpower. By teaming up with China, Iran acknowledges a potential deviation in the global order where the United States is a hegemon. These thoughts are not unanimous as some Iranians, particularly those who remain hopeful for a return of the Pahlavi regime, are hesitant of such a strong relationship with China. Nevertheless, the deal provides a hopeful future for young Iranians who have been disenfranchised by a severe lack of opportunities combined with the effect of American sanctions and restrictions of the Islamic Republic that have been placed on the Iranian people. 

Both the lifting of the United States’ sanctions on Iran and the closing of the Iran-China deal will potentially bring great changes to power dynamics in the Middle East and the global order. As none of these changes are final at the time of this article’s publication, it will be interesting to watch how the events surrounding the deal unfolds in the upcoming months.