Are Novel Diplomatic Ties Between Saudi Arabia and Iran a Step Towards Regional Stability or Cold War?
In the history of the Middle East, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran has been marked by mistrust, tension, and rivalry. However, recent developments suggest a potential breakthrough as both countries have agreed to restore ties. This landmark deal, which China brokered, has significant historical and contemporary implications.
China's brokering of a deal between two long-standing rivals demonstrates its growing influence and willingness to engage with the Middle East. This deal is also consistent with China's Belt and Road Initiative, which seeks to connect Asia, Europe and Africa through infrastructure development and economic cooperation. China's involvement in the Middle East has increased in recent years, mainly through its relationship with Iran. In 2016, China signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement with Iran, which includes significant investments in Iran's oil and gas sector. China's growing economic ties with Iran may have influenced its decision to broker the deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to reap the benefits of the other oil giant in the region. Having both countries in cooperation would make China’s periphery a formidable opponent or ally.
With pre-established strong singular ties, China is strengthening the overall web by restoring diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which can potentially reduce ethnic tensions and instability in the Middle East. The reconciliation between these two countries could pave the way for a more peaceful and stable region.
However, restoring diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran is not without challenges.
The historic rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran dates back to the Iranian Revolution in 1979, which established an Islamic republic in Iran. Since then, both countries have vied for regional dominance, supporting opposing factions in various conflicts across the Middle East, such as in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq. This long-standing enmity has fueled sectarian tensions and destabilised the region. The recent appointment of an Iranian envoy to the UAE, which is seen as a close ally of Saudi Arabia, indicates that there is still work to be done to build trust and normalize relations between these two countries.
The ramifications of this deal extend beyond the Middle East. The United States and the United Kingdom have traditionally been close allies of Saudi Arabia. In the 1930s, the US recognized the government of King Ibn Saud and subsequently, drilling and exportation by Standard Oil Company commenced. For the British, diplomatic relations began even earlier with the signing of the Treaty of Darin in 1915. Saudi Arabia also opened its second official foreign embassy in London in 1930. Saudi Arabia has been a strategic ally of both nations, and the restoration of ties with Iran may cause some concern. The US and the UK may view this as a shift in the balance of power in the Middle East and may be hesitant to fully embrace the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Ultimately, the restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, brokered by China, will reshape the political landscape of the Middle East and beyond. China's involvement in the Middle East is growing, and this deal is consistent with its Belt and Road Initiative. The reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran will lead to a more stable Middle East, though significant challenges, as aforementioned, need to be overcome. Western nations may view this as a shift in the balance of power in the Middle East and may be hesitant to embrace the reconciliation. However, it is clear that China is a significant player in this region, dictating its rules to the game.
Sources
Image source: Nureldine, Fayez. Atalayar. “Iran and Saudi Arabia strengthen relations and focus on Persian Gulf security.” Accessed September 5, 2023. https://www.atalayar.com/en/articulo/politics/iran-and-saudi-arabia-strengthen-relations-and-focus-on-persian-gulf-security/20230817174543189688.html.
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