Rise of the Right: Potential Implications of the German Election Results for the EU.
The dust has barely settled on Germany’s 2025 federal election, yet its outcome is already sending shockwaves across Europe. The victory of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) securing a close second position marks a distinct shift in German, and more importantly, European politics (Zeier & Grün, 2025). As Europe’s largest economic powerhouse and the key pillar upon which the European Union stands, Germany’s turn towards right-wing politics will have serious implications, both domestically and for the future direction of the European project, particularly regarding governance and stability.
A conservative government could move towards more populist tactics. Whilst the CDU's election agenda promoted a reassessment of fiscal policy, its call to strengthen ties with France and Poland in combating illegal immigration signals an appeal to voters opposed to the EU’s lenient asylum stance (CDU, 2025). This gradual shift could weaken the EU's cohesion on issues of immigration and economic governance.
This line of thinking could be attributed to scepticism and political pessimism. Within the same manifesto, CDU realigns itself to the EU’s efforts to combat climate change and upholds some parts of the social welfare programme. However, although this may indicate that the CDU will present for Germany a more centrist future, the surge of AfD’s seats and its record growth might push the CDU to adopt more nationalist rhetoric (Weisskircher, 2020). This would allow the government to advance its agenda and pass legislation without AfD obstruction. In such a case, this would further complicate Brussels’ efforts to maintain unity amidst a critical period.
The polarisation of German politics, as seen in a lack of a clear majority leader, could make coalition-building increasingly difficult, leading to political gridlock. CDU is now at a crossroads, facing a dilemma of whether to form a fragile centrist coalition that will face internal division or legitimise extremist rhetoric by aligning with the far-right AfD.
Nevertheless, the CDU’s Leader, Friedrich Merz, said that “we will not work with the party that calls itself Alternative for Germany,” whilst the CDU’s sister party’s leader, Markus Söder, claimed that they shall “fight” it (Chitty, 2025). Taking this into consideration, the coalition strategy taken by the CDU would most likely rely upon forming alliances with moderate parties, such as the Socialist Democratic Party, as it did in the past. Although this comes at the cost of political compromise, it would preserve the democratic credibility and avoid legitimising extremist rhetoric. Either path will pose challenges for Germany’s political stability and that of the EU (Chassany, 2025).
Germany has played the role of a stabiliser within the EU, acting as a mediator between stronger and weaker economies of the bloc alike (Bulmer, 2014). However, the election results could create new tensions, as European Commission’s President Ursula von der Leyen may now face a less cooperative Berlin (Tanno et al., 2025). The central German seat of power would increasingly focus on domestic priorities and distance itself from the EU’s broader geopolitical agenda. If Germany adopts a more inward-focused, protectionist stance, the EU’s ability to respond to crises could be diminished, especially in regard to NATO priorities in the light of the Russo-Ukrainian War (Thomas, 2025).
Germany’s election marks a turning point for both the country and the European Union. CDU’s victory is a sign that traditional parties are struggling to maintain dominance in the face of rising populism, as the far-right ascends. The situation signals a recalibration of the European political landscape. Whether the EU can navigate these challenges while preserving unity and democratic integrity remains an open question. What is clear, however, is that the political shift in Germany signals further changes to come across the continent in favour of right-wing politics, with the consequences yet uncertain.
Sources
Bulmer, Simon. "Germany and the Eurozone crisis: Between hegemony and domestic politics." West European Politics 37: 6 (2014), pp. 1244-1263.
Chassany, Anne-Sylvaine. "CDU Coalition Challenges After German Election." Financial Times (2025). https://www.ft.com/content/fb8917eb-6610-4904-bb78-6d5b0898d333
Christlich Demokratische Union . Election manifesto: CDU/CSU – Short Version (English) (2025). https://www.cdu.de/app/uploads/2025/01/wahlprogramm-cdu-csu-kurzfassung-englisch.pdf
Chitty, Abby. “Germany: CDU Leader Friedrich Merz Says His Party Will Never Work with Far Right.” Euronews (2025). https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/02/03/germany-cdu-leader-friedrich-merz-says-his-party-will-never-work-with-far-right
Zeier, Kristin, Gianna-Carina Grün. German election results and voter demographics explained in charts. Deutsche Welle (2025) https://www.dw.com/en/german-election-results-and-voter-demographics-explained-in-charts/a-71724186
Tanno, Sophie, Helen Regan, Frederik Pleitgen, and Stephanie Halasz. "German Election Results: CDU and AfD Gain Ground." CNN (2025). https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/23/europe/german-election-results-cdu-afd-intl/.
Thomas, Richard. "German Election: Defence Outlook of a CDU-Led Government." Naval Technology (2025). https://www.naval-technology.com/news/german-election-defence-outlook-of-a-cdu-led-government/
Weisskircher, Manès. "The strength of far‐right AfD in eastern Germany: The east‐west divide and the multiple causes behind ‘populism’." The Political Quarterly 91: 3 (2020), pp.614-622.
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