Pakistan in Crisis: A Nuclear Power Near The Precipice

On July 12th, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided a much-needed three billion dollar (USD) bailout to shore up Pakistan's teetering economy and social instability. Historically, Pakistan has sought assistance from the IMF on 22 occasions; however, this bailout, pending since December 2022, encountered a roadblock when the IMF initially declined the one billion dollar loan due to disagreements with the government. While this remedy provides momentary respite, it merely brushes the surface of the crisis's root causes.

Politics and The Army

Emerging from the crucible of decolonization and war, Pakistan has historically been entangled in a complex web of military-backed politicians and policy. Since its independence in 1947, Pakistan has had 29 prime ministers, of which none have completed their entire five-year tenure due to corruption and political infighting.

Just this May, Former Prime Minister Imran Khan waged a campaign against Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's administration, alleging economic mismanagement and ties to influential military leaders, including Chief of Army Staff General Asim Munir, formerly the Director-General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Khan accused the army and ISI of orchestrating his assassination attempt in November 2022. In its own offensive, Sharif's administration charged Khan with corruption, accusing him of causing a loss of 239 million dollars and selling state gifts during his tenure. Following his arrest on August 5th and subsequent court sentencing to three years in prison, Imran Khan was barred from public office for five years by the Election Commission of Pakistan, a move likely to eliminate Sharif's biggest political rival.

Amid this upheaval, President Arif Alvi, on Prime Minister Sharif's advice, unexpectedly dissolved Pakistan's parliament on August 9th, three days before its term was due to end, ushering in an interim administration.

The interim administration's swift actions included controversial amendments to the Official Secrets Bill and the Pakistan Army Bill, which grant extensive powers to military and intelligence agencies. The former imposes penalties for revealing sensitive information, while the latter introduces imprisonment for unauthorized disclosure of national security details or even defamation against Pakistan's Army. Empowered by these measures, the interim administration swiftly targeted members of Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e Insaf party, which led to the arrest of former Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and the intimidation of public supporters through trials in special military courts.

With the world's sixth-largest military, Pakistan's armed forces and intelligence are intricately linked to its political landscape. The military's substantial sway, displayed by the 32 years of martial law at various periods, has led to concerns about its power, often described as a "state within a state" (Altaf 2019, 7-36). As Pakistan navigates possible weeks of political unrest, there are apprehensions that the military might intervene to enhance its influence, an episode all too familiar to Pakistanis.

Social Violence

The spectre of regional violence and the ongoing Taliban insurgency cast a shadow over Pakistan, intensified by a recent July 31st suicide bombing that claimed 54 lives, its echoes reverberating from the Afghan border. The ISI, who have historically trained and aided the Taliban, now face the blowback from their actions through outbreaks of violence.

Moreover, a significant incident occurred on August 16th when Jaranwala Police detained 130 individuals from an enraged Muslim mob following suspicions of blasphemy by Christians, leading to a riot involving looting, vandalism, and the burning of churches and homes. This incident raised questions about the fairness and reliability of Pakistan's justice system, especially as the arrested Christians face possible death sentences while the mob's accountability remains uncertain.

Amidst this complexity, it is worth highlighting that 64% of Pakistan's population is under 30. This can herald certain advantages and opportunities for national growth. However, in Pakistan, unemployment and social challenges persist. With 21.9% of Pakistanis living below the poverty line, inadequate government funding in agriculture, healthcare, education, and public services exacerbates the nation's troubles.

Economic Volatility

Pakistan's economic instability has complex origins, driven by internal and external factors. Earlier this year, the abrupt removal of the currency cap resulted in a sharp 20% decline in the Pakistani Rupee against the dollar, compounded by a 16% rise in fuel costs. Alongside these challenges, the central bank's move to raise interest rates by 100 basis points to combat unprecedented inflation has fallen short of alleviating the growing unemployment rate. This resulted in a jarring economic collapse, depleting foreign exchange reserves and straining the country's capacity to service its foreign debt. Despite this, Pakistan's emerging partnership with China holds the potential for transformative economic and geopolitical benefits, offering the hope of much-needed assistance to the nation.
The ambitious 62 billion USD China-Pakistan Economic Corridor envisions a network of infrastructural projects to fortify the two nations' prosperity, with work already underway at the Gwadar Port. However, on August 13th, this aspiration faced a stark challenge when the Balochistan Liberation Army, a separatist militia, launched an assault on a convoy of Chinese engineers en route to the port. Although the engineers were unharmed, the incident prompted swift condemnation from Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin. The implications are significant: Pakistan could endanger its strategic partnership with China and perpetuate threats to its citizens' lives if it fails to suppress the escalating regional violence.

Conclusion

As Pakistan treads the confluence of political turbulence and economic precarity, it stands at a critical crossroads. The IMF bailout offers a temporary salve, yet the underlying challenges demand far-reaching reforms. Eerily echoing its birth amidst the cauldron of the British Raj's collapse, Pakistan confronts a parallel precipice. The intricate entanglement of religion, civilian leadership, and military authority has posed perennial issues, haunting the present as in the past. In this crucible, a coherent and forward-looking strategy becomes an imperative lodestar, charting a course towards resilience, progress, and enduring stability.

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Image Source: Reuters/Akhtar Soomro. The Jerusalem Post. November 4, 2022. https://www.jpost.com/international/article-721986?fbclid=IwAR2TKYDwwioCwmHrAHN1-5zNSysNOI3utgce6pg6M8xrVJcYfqcA6tdumNc.