Coronavirus - The Invisible Killer

Coronavirus (COVID-19) is dominating global headlines. With each passing day, we hear of further developments in the spread of this virus, and our freedom becomes increasingly limited. The alarming reality is the lack of seriousness taken towards this by students and youths. Awareness must be raised. This is a particularly apparent problem in the western world, as many see the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) global fatality statistics as insignificant — with an average death rate of 3.4 per cent. Despite the low probability of death — of which many are unaware — this rate varies from country to country. Once a nation is infected, this statistic depends on one thing: political regimes and their approach to reducing social contact within their society.

Governments with a democratic approach to power and control are far less prepared for the measurements which must be taken to reduce the impact of this pandemic. On the contrary, non-democratic regimes and autocracies are more likely to overcome the virus with minimal loss of population. Nations such as China, Russia and North Korea can enforce rules on their society more easily than in the west, as their governments operate by asserting dominance through power on their inhabitants. If I may use the extreme example of a dictatorship: the dictator has total control over everyone in their country, therefore, what they say must be obeyed. If rules are disobeyed, the consequences are decided by the ruler, and usually, this results in the death of the rebel. For coronavirus-infected nations which follow this ideology, reducing the spread is easy, as if the ruler declares lockdown, those who disobey these measures will be punished severely.

Now we shall look at the lifetime of the virus within China — the source of the outbreak.

CHART 1: TIMELINE OF EVENTS IN HUBEI

CHART TAKEN FROM MEDIUM.COM (PUEYO, T. 2020)

Analysing this chart allows us to understand how the virus spreads. Firstly, it should be noted that grey bars represent true cases of COVID-19 — the number of actual cases within Hubei, China — and orange bars represent actual cases known to the government. Within the space of 7 days (Jan 14 – Jan 21), the number of true cases has risen exponentially by around 1,350; however, the number of actual cases has only begun to rise. According to official figures on January 21st, there were only around 150 cases. The alarming reality is that there were an additional 1,200 cases unknown to authorities. Two days later, official cases had more than doubled to 400, leading the Chinese government to quarantine the whole of Hubei Province — a total of nearly sixty million people. This was the most important day for China during the pandemic, as the next day true cases hit their peak at a total of 2,750. Had the government have not acted so swiftly, true cases would have skyrocketed, and China would not be in as comfortable a situation as they currently are — a flatlining rate of cases, and fatality rate of 0.9%.

What can the West learn from this? Two words: Act. Fast.

It is clear from the chart that as soon as official cases begin to rise the affected area must be shut down immediately; otherwise, cases will explode uncontrollably. In a western democracy, this is an arduous task: we are used to freedom, and many who do not agree with ruling parties may not take them seriously. Unfortunately, political bias is apparent all over the globe. Ultimately, this leads to a slower rate of lockdown within a country, and if we refer to chart 1, we can see that in a mere two days (January 21-January 23) cases can rise by up to 1,000. Therefore, if a democratic country takes longer to enforce lockdown, it is more at risk of infecting larger numbers of its population.

France has employed somewhat uncharacteristic measures, for a democratic country, in order to reduce the spread of COVID-19. The French government became overwhelmed by the rapid dispersion of the virus throughout its population and looked to more stable countries — ones which had already overcome the peak number of cases, like China — for answers. Currently, those in the country are only allowed to leave their homes in two cases: to buy food and medicine, and to exercise. If one is found breaking these rules, a large fine is imposed. This is an example of a necessary strategy to reduce spread, yet, it is also an example of a nation resorting to vastly different political policies from their norm. This emphasises the increasing danger associated with COVID-19. A wide array of other democracies must follow suit.

Finally, we shall discuss age. The chart below shows infection statistics for age groups in Italy and South Korea.

This is the most concerning graph of all, and really highlights the severity of this virus for students and youths. In South Korea, all age demographics have been tested, and the highest number of infections lies within those aged 20-29. This age group is at low risk of fatality, yet a great many are infected. Despite 20-29-year olds mainly being safe, they are huge spreaders of the virus: fundamentally, we have the young infecting and killing the elderly, with no knowledge of doing so. The virus is producing invisible and accidental serial killers. We are living in a zombie apocalypse, but there is no way of identifying the zombies.

What must we do? STAY INDOORS AND REDUCE SOCIAL CONTACT. No one wants to be a killer. Don’t risk becoming one.